British Airways - it's a wipe out

Bad news arrived last week for surfers across the world, as the UK's national flag carrier British Airways issued a world-wide blanket ban on the carriage of surf boards. The ban, which is effective from 6th November will have a big impact on Jersey's surfing community and not help the island's tourism industry in the cause to attract more European and World surfing events to Jersey.

Not surprisingly surfing associations across the world are dismayed at the decision. The British Surfing Association with over 10,000 members has launched a petition to attempt to get the decision overturned, so far over 2500 have done so. Click here to view and sign the petition.

What can Jersey's tourism industry do about it? Well, hopefully the Economic Development Minister, Philip Ozouf along with Julian Green at Jersey Airport have already contacted British Airways to present our case. At the very least we should be trying to get an exemption on the Gatwick - Jersey route so that surfers can then connect to and from airlines that are still surfer-friendly.

If the ban is not overturned, then surfers will need to look elsewhere. Flybe charge £20.00, whilst bmi do not charge - but both airlines only take the boards subject to space allowing, so no guarantee you'll arrive with your surfboard anyway!

Statistics are like bikinis.......

One of the really great things about Jersey Tourism is the preponderance of statistics they make available online through their website. It’s great to be able to access all sorts of data on-line and usually the information is updated quickly and efficiently. For example June’s arrival figures are already up there – showing a healthy 3% increase overall & we should not have to wait too long to discover if this increase is matched by a rise in staying visitors.

June Arrivals

The figures also allow certain conclusions to be drawn. For example, 3756 passengers arrived from Heathrow in June. With 2 BMI flights a day and an average capacity of about 120 seats – that produces an average load factor of 52%. I wonder how happy BMI are with that figure after 3 months of operating the route? And are taxpayers seeing a return on the investment made into securing the route in the first place? We will never know because we have no idea of the size of the subsidy.

By contrast, let’s look at Luton – from where Thomsonfly started operating in May. The route provides one arrival a day, but has carried 2655 passengers. With a smaller aircraft, that’s a much more encouraging load factor of around 80%. I appreciate that there are big differences in fare levels. (I flew to Luton in May for just £40.00 return including tax), but if volume is a key requisite for tourism growth then I believe Thomsonfly should receive the bouquets. And I bet the route subsidy has cost a lot less.

Overall arrivals from London Airports are up by an impressive 12% so far this year, so that’s good news for everyone in the industry.

2006 Visitor Survey

Then there’s the latest Staying Leisure Visitor Survey – in short a very long questionnaire sent to visitors after they return home asking for their views on their stay in Jersey. At face value a good piece of work that provides useful trend analysis of visitors’ characteristics & their perceptions of Jersey.

And yet – whilst the survey tries to obtain a cross-section of visitors, there is no sampling by age range or socio-economic profiling. So if a higher proportion of questionnaires are returned by the 55+ age group this could give a very one-sided perception of the delivery of our tourist product. The survey does break down the findings by age group, but the sizes of the samples for younger age groups may be too small to be credible.

I know that First Research who produced the survey, have many years of experience in producing this report – the guys behind it used to manage the statistics unit at Jersey Tourism. The report is of extremely high quality – but in my view poses as many questions as it answers.

A US business professor, Aaron Levenstein got it about right when he said ‘Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.’ If we are going to base future investment decisions on today’s data, then we need to make sure that the numbers don’t lie.

Heathrow subsidy remains a secret. So who's next for a hand-out?

Whilst the great and the good of Jersey's tourism industry enjoy a trip round the Bay (of Biscay) aboard BMI's equivalent of the Saucy Sue, Senator Ozouf has confirmed that the subsidy provided by tax-payers to secure BMI on the Heathrow route will remain a state secret.

No surprise there then! The fact that it is being kept a secret, leads one to conclude that the amount involved is so big, that if it were revealed it would cause huge repercussions. So we wait to see if Flybe's challenge to the competition authorities both here and in the UK has any effect. Meanwhile, now that the skies have been opened from Heathrow to the US, I wonder how long BMI will want to keep flying to Jersey when they could use their slots for far more profitable routes across The Pond.

So who's next for a state handout? I expect an announcement within the next couple of weeks regarding the launch of new routes to the Continent. I would not be surprised if these are to Paris & Zurich - as these were the routes that were the last to disappear a few years ago and provide the only real chance of achieving a decent commercial result. And who will operate these routes? My guess is that the only operator who could possibly be persuaded to give it a go is a local airline - but we shall see.

It will be great to have the routes opened up. But I wonder how much they will receive from the States incentive pot? Unfortunately, we'll never know.

Just how much is that BMI Heathrow subsidy?

It's great to have Ian Taylor back! And he's certainly fighting fit and keen to get to the bottom of this Heathrow subsidy. As reported in today's Jersey Evening Post, Flybe have asked the OFT in the UK to investigate the subsidy provided by the States to BMI for the new Heathrow route. They have also complained to the Jersey Competition Authority that the deal should have been referred to them for approval.

Not content with that, Flybe have also made submissions to Economic Development, objecting to the issuing of a permit to fly the route. So where does that leave us?

To be honest it is unlikely that the launch of the new route will be affected - which will come as a relief to the thousands who have already booked to travel to Heathrow (including me!). However, it seems to me that the real problem here is Economic Development's refusal to reveal the subsidy. The secrecy of the deal suggests it's a pretty largish sum of tax-payer's money. Ian Taylor wants the figure to be revealed and is quoted as saying ' If it was £3 million a year - that's £9 million over 3 years.' Clearly you're good at maths, Ian!

Deputy Alan Maclean refuses to divulge the amount on the grounds of commercial confidentiality - but if it's public money and the figure is in that ballpark, surely the amount should be revealed?

Everyone in our industry (except Flybe and the other airlines) is delighted to have the Heathrow route back - not least the Finance industry. Perhaps there lies the key to the whole thing. The Golden Child of Jersey's economy has forced the hand of the government to make it easier for their clients to come and check out the value of their funds.

I'm willing to bet that it won't be long before the true level of subsidy is revealed. Keep watching this space!

Jersey - Heathrow to be reinstated!

The best news so far this year! BMI (the grown up version of BmiBaby who currently operate to Jersey) are going to recommence flights from Heathrow to Jersey. 2 flights a day are due to start operating in March using an Airbus.

This is fantastic news for the industry - the international connections through Heathrow are so much better than Gatwick and should enable Jersey Tourism to boost our international visits, as well as putting Jersey back on the map in West London.

The official announcement is due tomorrow, but to read more about it look at Channel TV's online article