One of the really great things about Jersey Tourism is the preponderance of statistics they make available online through their website. It’s great to be able to access all sorts of data on-line and usually the information is updated quickly and efficiently. For example June’s arrival figures are already up there – showing a healthy 3% increase overall & we should not have to wait too long to discover if this increase is matched by a rise in staying visitors.
June Arrivals
The figures also allow certain conclusions to be drawn. For example, 3756 passengers arrived from Heathrow in June. With 2 BMI flights a day and an average capacity of about 120 seats – that produces an average load factor of 52%. I wonder how happy BMI are with that figure after 3 months of operating the route? And are taxpayers seeing a return on the investment made into securing the route in the first place? We will never know because we have no idea of the size of the subsidy.
By contrast, let’s look at Luton – from where Thomsonfly started operating in May. The route provides one arrival a day, but has carried 2655 passengers. With a smaller aircraft, that’s a much more encouraging load factor of around 80%. I appreciate that there are big differences in fare levels. (I flew to Luton in May for just £40.00 return including tax), but if volume is a key requisite for tourism growth then I believe Thomsonfly should receive the bouquets. And I bet the route subsidy has cost a lot less.
Overall arrivals from London Airports are up by an impressive 12% so far this year, so that’s good news for everyone in the industry.
2006 Visitor Survey
Then there’s the latest Staying Leisure Visitor Survey – in short a very long questionnaire sent to visitors after they return home asking for their views on their stay in Jersey. At face value a good piece of work that provides useful trend analysis of visitors’ characteristics & their perceptions of Jersey.
And yet – whilst the survey tries to obtain a cross-section of visitors, there is no sampling by age range or socio-economic profiling. So if a higher proportion of questionnaires are returned by the 55+ age group this could give a very one-sided perception of the delivery of our tourist product. The survey does break down the findings by age group, but the sizes of the samples for younger age groups may be too small to be credible.
I know that First Research who produced the survey, have many years of experience in producing this report – the guys behind it used to manage the statistics unit at Jersey Tourism. The report is of extremely high quality – but in my view poses as many questions as it answers.
A US business professor, Aaron Levenstein got it about right when he said ‘Statistics are like bikinis. What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital.’ If we are going to base future investment decisions on today’s data, then we need to make sure that the numbers don’t lie.
Statistics are like bikinis.......
GST - include or exclude in prices?
Last week saw an allocation of tour operators (is there a better name for a collection of these good people?) descending on Jersey to contract hotels for 2008. It just so happened that their visit coincided with the Jersey Hospitality Association's quarterly forum at which the guest speaker was the government's Goods and Services Tax guru, Steve Lowthorpe.
Leaving aside the whole issue of the tour operator margin scheme and on which elements of the package GST will be charged, the main gripe seemed to revolve around the lack of time to prepare. We were promised a full 12 months to deal with the implementation of the tax, but the issue is from what date the clock started ticking. Government says April because that's when the GST law was passed - even though neither the actual date for implementation, nor on what basis it would be applied, had been resolved.
Anyway it looks as if April 2008 is going to be the month when GST comes in. The question is should suppliers include or exclude the tax when issuing rates to tour operators for next year? The decision is mainly down to whether or not the hotel's operating system can be programmed to apply a tax to whatever rates are loaded. If it can, then it surely makes sense to provide rates exclusive of tax, in order that it can be applied at the correct rate on the right date.
So far, operators seem happy with this approach. Has anyone had any different experience or do you have a different view?
The Royal Yacht sets sail
Congratulations to the team at The Royal Yacht on the opening of the new hotel. Despite all the delays and difficulties with completing the building work, the hotel is now open and looks great.
I was at the opening party last Tuesday (along with half of Jersey it seemed!). In fact it was so crowded that I am really looking forward to going back and having a look at the hotel when it’s quieter. What I did see, looked good and in particular the new bedrooms are impressive. Apparently, the building work has delayed the rooms opening for a few more days.
The nightclub on the ground floor is interesting. It holds 700 people, so I would imagine that the existing clubs around town will be concerned about the impact. I understand that with the exception of Saturday nights, most clubs are already struggling to attract numbers. I am also wondering what the impact of several hundred clubbers spilling out into the night at chucking-out time will be on those paying top dollar to stay in the balcony rooms at the front.
The spa also looks good, the restaurants could be good – depends on the menu and service, and I believe the bar prices are quite high. One thing’s for sure, if we ever get a summer, their al fresco area will do very well.
Thanks for a great party. It’s been a long time since I have bumped into so many members of the tourism industry in one night. It was great to catch up with everyone. So that’s one new opening down – one to go. I saw Jonathan Huglin, the GM at The Radisson walking around looking slightly aghast at the party going on. Jonathan – it’s your turn next! You’ve got a hard act to follow.
